Supply-chain challenges with chicken? Try these center-of-plate strategies

Q&A with Dr. Henry Zerby

Millions of birds (and counting) have either died due to bird flu virus infection or have been culled due to exposure to infected birds since early 2022. This crisis impacts supply, prices and menus across the board.

With this in mind, we asked Dr. Henry Zerby, Entegra’s vice president of supply management, what operators need to consider about supply-chain challenges for center of plate as we continue to experience the rippling effects of shortages from poultry producers.

With the high price of proteins soaring into the double digits, food service operators are challenged to maintain margins and the quality of the center of the plate, what can operators expect in the new year?

“So, there are no new silver bullets, unfortunately,” said Dr. Zerby. “To understand how we got here, we have to look back at what’s been happening in the marketplace. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to negatively impact poultry-related industries, hitting turkey and egg production especially hard, but also impacting chicken.

“Turkey is astronomical, and prices are not expected to soften for at least nine months to a year.”

What can operators expect from pork producers? Is that a viable alternative to poultry?

“Ham and pork production is historically down from what it normally has been. Because of the disruptions with poultry, especially turkey, Mexico has switched to importing a lot of ham from the U.S. and that’s supporting elevated ham prices acros North America. The upside, though, is that China isn’t importing the volume of pork they have in the past, which is helping stabilize prices for now on several other pork cuts. We anticipate that the back half of 2023 will see prices trend up.”

What about beef?

“Beef is going to be challenging as a result of the previous drought in parts of the country. And because of the generational cycle with beef production, it will take one to two years to recover inventory and bring pricing relief to operators and consumers.”

How can operators mitigate the impact of rising prices in the center of the plate?

“The elevated prices that we have in play with traditional animal proteins may provide more opportunity to evaluate alternative protein items. Plant-based proteins may reduce the gap, but they tend to be equally expensive though.

“But the question is the performance of those proteins. Consumer interest in experimenting with plant-based entrees is there, but they don’t get a lot of repeat orders.”

What is the path forward through all this upheaval?

“One protein item that is significantly low right now, in terms of price, is chicken wings. As other chicken parts are used in more types of dishes, that leaves bone-in chicken wings as a potential solution to center-of-plate. Quick service restaurants, if they’re serving wings, generally serving boneless. So, there is an ample, affordable supply of bone-in wings and now might be a great time to look at some LTOs to feature bone-in wings as special side dishes or as center of the plate options.”

About Dr. Henry Zerby

Dr. Zerby joined Sodexo in January 2021 as the Vice President of Food for Supply Management in North America. He is responsible for providing leadership and strategic direction to the procurement teams covering Snacks & Beverages, Proteins, and Groceries/Prepared Foods.

Dr. Zerby served as the Chair of the Department of Animal Sciences at The Ohio State University where he served on the faculty in a teaching, research and extension role for 17 years.

Dr. Zerby was raised on a diversified livestock farm in central Pennsylvania and has production and processing experience with cattle, swine, sheep and poultry. He obtained his Ph.D. and M.S. from Colorado State University and his B.S. from The Pennsylvania State University. Henry currently resides in central Ohio with his family on a small farm where they raise cattle and sheep.

Interested in implementing cost-saving strategies in your business? A group purchasing organization can help you save on nearly everything you buy – including poultry. Contact us or call 833-955-1490.